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Check out this crazy one day return in my School Stock Game
This can only be one crazy ass short sell to get this return in one day.
All the rules are the same as this TLZONE stock game
 

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v90 when was that?
It happened on Jan 31, 2008.
Now every one is going to have to play the gamble " Short Sell" game to catch up to him.
that means taking your 100K$ in cash + 100K$ we can borrow.
Find a 4$ stock that will drop to 2$ & cash in.:banghead
 

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Chief Moderator for my kids Julia & Kristen,
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Is now the time to start dumping money into the market when I can? Looks like it might be a good time to start catching some stocks on the bottom end. I am investing through USAA right now, anybody here good or bad about their investments? Working on getting enough scratch together for one of the index funds they have.
I would wait until the market tanks, then buy those index funds. When it is looking the worst, when people are panicking and dumping stocks, that is the time to buy. The best bet really is jus to do dollar cost averaging - set an amount to contribute every month and just do it year in and year out.

Bad day on the VSE for me yesterday, missed by sell point on a short investment by 80 cents, missed a fat profit and it tanked today. Good day for real though, I had the same investment (FXP) in a conditional bracketed trade. It was selling at $109 to $108.50 a share, I had a sell stop in at $107.75 and a sell at $114. It tanked to $97, I automatically sold at $107.70 on the way down and made $1,320 in profits as I bought 75 shares at $90. I was not even there, I was skiing yesterday :) I have another buy in at $90 for FXP, it is at $93 and dropping today. Wash, rinse, repeat in this see-saw market :lol The VSE really screws me up as every trade I make is conditional. Without the sell stop tool to lock in profts and prevent excessive losses, I am sunk when it comes to individual equities. :banghead

Rofin-Sinar Technologies - was looking at this yesterday, but i forgot about it and i was bussy with real life work
Thanks Samsonskeg - RSTI added to my watch list and stock alerts. If the market dumps and that baby drops down around $35 again, I am going to seriously think about getting in :)
 

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I would wait until the market tanks, then buy those index funds. When it is looking the worst, when people are panicking and dumping stocks, that is the time to buy. The best bet really is jus to do dollar cost averaging - set an amount to contribute every month and just do it year in and year out.
That's what I had planned on doing, the buy in for the index fund is set at $3k though with a minimum of $50/month invested. The key will be timing my buy in at the extreme low.

This is what I am looking at as far as index funds...

USMIX Extended Market Index Fund
USNQX Nasdaq-100 Index Fund
USPRX S&P 500 Index Fund Reward Shares
USSPX S&P 500 Index Fund Member Shares

Which index to you (Duken mainly) think the best one to dump money into would be?

I have already started playing around with a couple of other mutual funds..

USAUX Aggressive Growth Fund $50/month with no buy in
USBSX Balanced Strategy Fund $20/month with no buy in
 

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Chief Moderator for my kids Julia & Kristen,
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Google has advantages over Yahoo! that even MS money can't overcome IMHO.

This might be a decent time to buy Google. Maybe 2 shares worth at $500 per :lol I am going to watch GOOG - if it falls farther during a sharply down day, maybe... More likely I will kick myself like I always do when an opportunity is missed and it pops back up over $600 again in short order. :lol

Duc - I ran your funds through Morningstar (which I subscribe to) and got the following:

USMIX - 4 stars (5 is best)

.5% expense ratio (very low) and $10,000 invested in 2003 would be $22,500 today. The managers have been in place since 2000, a good tenure. 30% of of it's holdings are domestic, 11% are international, 38% in bonds. Looks like a good core fund. It is a conservative one stop diversified holding IMHO. Nothing sexy, very solid and low expense. A good core holding with low risk.

USNQX - Also 4 stars

.8% expense ratio (very reasonable) the managers have been there since 2005, 2006. This is a large growth type fund. YTD return is -11.6%, 5 year return is 12.89%. This is a good choice also, more aggressive than the first and the negative return to date reflects that. This would be a good one to roll into when the market looks like shit during a heavy down cycle, which I think will come in force this summer.

USPRX - 3 stars. According to morningstar the min investment is 100K :eek

Very low expense ratio at .09%, 5 year return is 11.9%, YTD is -6%. Indexing the S&P is a broader and less volatile target than the top 100 in the more "exciting" Nasdaq. Truly, even if you can get in this one, the first fund on the list should cover your core needs nicely. I would skip this one. The high buy in gets you a slightly lower expense ratio than the next fund, that is the only difference I can see.

USSPX - As above, with 3K buy in. Expense ratio is dirt cheap .18%.

Morningstar describes this as "nothing wrong with this fund". Core holding, one-stop exposure to some of the U.S. market's biggest names. It spans the full breadth of market sectors. Since it is heavily devoted to mega-caps, it is a good candidate to anchor the large-cap slot of a portfolio.

All the funds in your list are large cap core type holdings. Those are good, but IMHO you need 30% or more of your holdings in international stocks. You also need mid caps, small caps to be fully diversified. Are there other offerings which have these? Also, is their a real estate investment trust (REIT) option?

I started my 401K 20 years ago, contributing 8% of my salary, probably $300 a month on average, plus 6% employer match, so perhaps an average of $500 a month going in, total, month in, month out for years. A few bucks went here, a few went there into a diversified basket of funds. It is amazing, 20 years later, so see the balance standing well into the 6 figures with an acutal investment of probably 120K over all those years. We switched to Vanguard funds a few years ago. Pity - they are so much better than the previous choices I had.

Time and pressure created the Grand Canyon. They also will build a portfolio. Auto transfer depositing, over a long time, taking advantage of dollar cost averaging in a diversified portfolio, is the way to go. Rebalance it once a year, taking money out of high performers and putting into laggers (which have a way of coming back later) and down the road, hopefully, it grows into something that provides peace of mind :)
 

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I think I'm going to short the house tomorrow because the roof is going to cave in. I'm surprised that the market took off on the Buffett and GM news today. The Dow futures are down by about 40 points right now. January retail sales is announced tomorrow at 8:30am est. I don't think it's going to be pretty.
 

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The Dow futures are down by about 40 points right now. January retail sales is announced tomorrow at 8:30am est. I don't think it's going to be pretty.
I agree. I picked up more DXD (Proshares Dow short ETF) yesterday in my real account at lower prices. Time will tell.

Chipotle reports earnings after market close today. That thing is either going to tank or fly. It won't stay in the low 100's where it has been nervously hanging the last few days. I wish I knew whether to buy it or short it. Damn crystal ball is broken again. I think they are going up. Those burritos are yummy and the restaurant is always packed.
 

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Come on Google, get me up there..
 

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That damned VSE website - it executes trades that I've cancelled and cancels trades that I want to execute. The other day it just totally ignored an order that I put in. Oh well, at least I made a little money in my real account this week.
So this week we have Walmart, JC Penney and HP reporting along with Jan CPI numbers, Housing starts and the bond insurers need to recapitalize to keep their AAA rating. I don't know but I think we might get a weak rally in the beginning of the week then it will all go to hell once the credit jitters pop up again at the end of the week.
I will short the market on the first sign of fear.
 

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Chief Moderator for my kids Julia & Kristen,
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I am holding some short positions as well in my investment account. FXP (China short ETF) is one volatile sucker. I think it is a screaming buy if it hits the low 80's. DXD (short Dow) is a screaming buy in the lower 50s. I have taken to buying and selling inverse ETF funds as a way to short the market. The funny thing is if you feel the market is going to rally, you can short the short ETFs :laugh

In my 401K pulled out 30% of my money from my 401K and put half of it into cash and the other half into Vanguard's excellent bond fund in September '07 and increased that to 60% of my holdings in December last year during the rally. My overall year to date for 2008 is -3.9%. I am pleased as hell with that since all my fund options are ranging from 6% to 10% or more down right now. I would probably be down 7 or 8% now instead of 4% if I had done nothing. I thnk the real opportunity lies ahead though.

I have a list of target prices to roll the cash and bond holdings back in that generally take it back to 2004-2005 pricing with automated alerts to be e-mailed to me if they get in range. Of course there is no way to predict the bottom, but I figure if I roll it back in cheaper, I will juice up the short term return and can still make more in the long run. I am fortunate to have good steady Eddie Vanguard fund options in my 401K plan to work with. Last year overall I did 18.5%, boosted by plowing my 20% bond and cash stake into stocks and playing the June market weakness, only to ease back out to a 30% cash level in September (slightly higher than normal for me) and all the way up to 60% cash in December (never have I held that much cash).

I know we are not supposed to try to time the market, but I can't resist a bit of "strategic asset reallocation" now and then. It always good to have cash in the account to pounce on opportunity. I think a big dump and hence a big opportunity is coming, so the cash got raised higher than usual. It feels like Mel Gibson in "Braveheart" with the onrushing hordes approaching, sitting on my 401K cash, watching prices decline saying "hold, hold!" In a way though, Mrs. Duke and I are already re-entering the market. She got a better paying part time job, so I raised my 401K contribution from 8% to 10% of my pay. This way, we will dollar cost average our way through the decline and automatically be buying shares at the low point. :D
 

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That's too funny about the short ETF's. I've got to check them out. I have to closely review my 401k when I get the report this month. I might have to do some make some changes like you have.
Well, the Dow futures are up 116 right now and the S&P is up 13.50. Lets see how long this will last.
 

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Up 24% today and up sharply the last few days. If the market keeps tanking, my nuclear winter short ETF portfolio may just break above even by the time this is over. Working hard and taking big chances to beat the guys who did nothing but sit on their cash. Ain't that the way... :laugh
 
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I think this game shows clearly how deep the downhill in stock marget is. Nobody is above the starting cash!
 

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Most people lose money trading individual stocks. This game has been very enlightening. It is easy to make money in a rising market and easy to lose money in a falling one. It was funny, I mentioned in an earlier post to Samsonskeg when he was 50 grand ahead on his ballsy Ambac play that he should just sell and take the win. He replied that he wanted to keep with it and see where it would take him. He is currently below starting cash. Gotta love this game, volatile Mr. Market is a rude taskmaster :lol

My flaw as an investor is to trade too much. I have definitely become more picky about when I am willing to buy. There has to be a compelling entry point. For example, one of my favorite stocks is Mastercard. It trades from $188 or so to 210. During the January meltdown, it precipitously dropped to $160 for a day. That is the kind of entry point I want to be in a position to capitalize on. I was down on other investments and had no cash to apply to that and no way I will go on margin in real life, so I had to watch it go by. It was painful. Lesson learned, never be fully invested, always have some cash in the account. I have some cash in mine now, but it is earmarked for the Visa IPO on 3/19 :devious

I am actually excited the market is dumping. People thought I was chicken little, but I pulled 70% of my retirement money and put it in bonds and cash in September and December of last year. Now I am sitting, waiting for the darkest day, when there is blood in the streets, to roll it back in. That is how one makes money. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greeedy. Warren Buffett said that.

Anyway, I got knocked about a bit earlier this year in January, but these are learning experiences. I have been on the gas lately, making up for lost time playing the same investments (short ETFs) in my real portfolio the last month or so. Like me VSE portfolio, my goal is to break even in a down market and maybe even make some money. The thing is, I can't stomach hanging it all out in the real portfolio with actual money like I do in the VSE one, so the progress is slower. This game takes endurance over years, not months :)
 

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Most people lose money trading individual stocks. This game has been very enlightening. It is easy to make money in a rising market and easy to lose money in a falling one. It was funny, I mentioned in an earlier post to Samsonskeg when he was 50 grand ahead on his ballsy Ambac play that he should just sell and take the win. He replied that he wanted to keep with it and see where it would take him. He is currently below starting cash. Gotta love this game, volatile Mr. Market is a rude taskmaster :lol

My flaw as an investor is to trade too much. I have definitely become more picky about when I am willing to buy. There has to be a compelling entry point. For example, one of my favorite stocks is Mastercard. It trades from $188 or so to 210. During the January meltdown, it precipitously dropped to $160 for a day. That is the kind of entry point I want to be in a position to capitalize on. I was down on other investments and had no cash to apply to that and no way I will go on margin in real life, so I had to watch it go by. It was painful. Lesson learned, never be fully invested, always have some cash in the account. I have some cash in mine now, but it is earmarked for the Visa IPO on 3/19 :devious

I am actually excited the market is dumping. People thought I was chicken little, but I pulled 70% of my retirement money and put it in bonds and cash in September and December of last year. Now I am sitting, waiting for the darkest day, when there is blood in the streets, to roll it back in. That is how one makes money. Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greeedy. Warren Buffett said that.

Anyway, I got knocked about a bit earlier this year in January, but these are learning experiences. I have been on the gas lately, making up for lost time playing the same investments (short ETFs) in my real portfolio the last month or so. Like me VSE portfolio, my goal is to break even in a down market and maybe even make some money. The thing is, I can't stomach hanging it all out in the real portfolio with actual money like I do in the VSE one, so the progress is slower. This game takes endurance over years, not months :)
hahah yeah, i know better... I say after this game ends, we should start it again :):devious
 

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:lol

It was funny - Damn VSE. I meant to short ABK and wound up buying it instead when I had to re-do the order. That cost me a couple grand. :banghead

Edit. Holy crap, FXP dropped $12 in pre-trade. I am gonna get whacked today. Good news for the real portfolio though, I sold it at $104 and have a buy in at $85.50. Maybe I can reload :devious

I have learned not to push that radioactive investment too far, it tends to sharply rise from lows and sharply drop from highs. Sold off a few shares in the VSE, but kept most, trying to cross the line in the green. As usual, I am gonna get burned :laugh Oh well, a lot can happen in 5 days :)
 
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